SubjectsSubjects(version: 949)
Course, academic year 2023/2024
Decision Analysis - AP501010
Title: Decision Analysis
Guaranteed by: Department of Economics and Management (837)
Faculty: Central University Departments of UCT Prague
Actual: from 2021
Semester: both
Points: 0
E-Credits: 0
Examination process:
Hours per week, examination: 3/0, other [HT]
Capacity: winter:unknown / unknown (unknown)
summer:unknown / unknown (unknown)
Min. number of students: unlimited
Language: English
Teaching methods: full-time
Teaching methods: full-time
For type: doctoral
Note: course is intended for doctoral students only
can be fulfilled in the future
you can enroll for the course in winter and in summer semester
Guarantor: Švecová Lenka doc. Ing. Ph.D.
Annotation -
Last update: Švecová Lenka doc. Ing. Ph.D. (13.12.2020)
The aim of the course is to present classical approaches and contemporary knowledge in the field of decision analysis and research methods in this field. Within the course, students will discuss selected theories of the field. Students will be acquainted with some of the world's most cited journals in the field of managerial decision-making and with the specifics of their content and publishing practice. As part of their individual work, they then process a systematic literature search or analysis in a defined area of their dissertation.
Literature -
Last update: Švecová Lenka doc. Ing. Ph.D. (13.12.2020)

Kepner, C. H., & Tregoe, B. B. (2005). The new rational manager (rev. ed.). New York, NY: Kepner-Tregoe.

Hammond, J. S., Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (2015). Smart choices: A practical guide to making better decisions. Harvard Business Review Press.

Ariely, D., & Jones, S. (2008). Predictably irrational. New York, NY: Harper Audio.

Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (2014). Decision analysis for management judgment. John Wiley & Sons.

Hillson, D., & Simon, P. (2020). Practical project risk management: The ATOM methodology. Berrett-Koehler Publishers.

MacKay, P., & Moeller, S. B. (2007). The value of corporate risk management. The Journal of Finance, 62(3), 1379-1419.

Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Macmillan.

Hammond, J. S., Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (2006). The hidden traps in decision making. Harvard business review, 84(1), 118.

Merna, T., & Al-Thani, F. F. (2011). Corporate risk management. John Wiley & Sons.

Mun, J. (2010). Modeling risk: Applying Monte Carlo risk simulation, strategic real options, stochastic forecasting, and portfolio optimization (Vol. 580). John Wiley & Sons.

Clifford, W., & Smith, J. (1995). Corporate risk management: theory and practice. The Journal of derivates, 30, 21, 31.

Segal, S. (2011). Corporate value of enterprise risk management. Hoboken (NJ): Wiley.

Kahneman, D., Slovic, S. P., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (Eds.). (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge university press.

Journals, for example:

• Judgment and Decision Making

• International Journal of Management Reviews

• International Journal of Operations and Production Management

• Journal of Behavioral Decision Making

• Theory and Decision

• Decision Analysis

Syllabus -
Last update: Švecová Lenka doc. Ing. Ph.D. (13.12.2020)

1. Rationality of the decision-maker

2. Behavioral aspects of irrationality

3. Methods and tools of risk decision making

4. The concept of risk

5. Risk classification

6. Basic concepts of risk decision-making (attitude to risk, certainty equivalent)

7. Multi-criteria utility function under risk

8. Methods and tools of risk decision-making (decision matrices, probability trees, scenarios, Monte Carlo simulations, decision trees, portfolio development methods)

9. Decision rules under risk and uncertainty

10. Risk analysis (identification of risks, determination of their significance, risk measurement)

11. Risk assessment

12. Risk reduction strategies

13. Development of risk management system.

14. Postaudits

Course completion requirements -
Last update: Švecová Lenka doc. Ing. Ph.D. (13.12.2020)

The condition for successful completion of the course is the elaboration of a seminar paper, which will take the form of an article with the aim of linking theoretical background with current issues, or a systematic search of literature or analysis in a defined area of dissertation.

The second part is the student's ability to moderate a professional discussion on a selected topic, always on a given theory, approach, concept or problem.